Mike Vickers' Blog

October 18, 2019

Johnson in a Rush – To minimise the Opportunity for MPs to read the Small Print

From Today’s Financial Times

The deal that Boris Johnson signed with the EU yesterday has immense economic and constitutional implications for the UK.

In any normally functioning democracy, a treaty of this magnitude would be subject to extensive parliamentary scrutiny — if not a confirmatory vote by the British public.

The reality is that neither of these things is happening, or indeed likely to happen. MPs are being given little time to scrutinise the text before being asked to hold a landmark Commons vote tomorrow.

As for the confirmatory referendum, there will be numerous attempts by MPs to secure one in the days ahead if the Johnson deal is passed. But MPs on all sides are now so fatigued by Brexit that their efforts are unlikely to end in success.

The absurdity of the situation is not difficult to see. As Martin Wolf argues in the FT, the Johnson deal damages the UK economy. As he writes: “It is going to make the country substantially poorer than it would otherwise be. It is going to reduce the resources available to any future government to deliver on domestic policy promises.”

The constitutional implications are possibly worse. The Johnson deal means Northern Ireland will be in a completely different trading relationship from the rest of the UK. This will inevitably fan the flames of militant unionism for the first time since the Good Friday Agreement.

Note, for example, this story that the Democratic Unionist party met loyalist paramilitaries — including the Ulster Volunteer Force — to discuss the implications of a mooted Brexit deal this week. This is troubling.

Meanwhile, Scotland, which voted Remain, will want the same preferential trading terms with the EU as Northern Ireland. Instead, the Scots are being subjected to the hard Brexit that Mr Johnson is imposing on the whole of Great Britain. 

As the commentator Ian Dunt writes: “It is as if Westminster were trying to write the SNP’s independence campaign for it.”

One other aspect of this deal should not be ignored. Many MPs will vote for the Johnson package tomorrow because they think they are avoiding no deal.

But this simply isn’t the case. Under this treaty, the UK will enter a standstill transition period until December 2020. If there is no fully-fledged trade deal agreed with the EU by then, the UK will crash out anyway.

In other words, if the Johnson deal passes tomorrow, Britain will spend the first half of 2020 having the same argument it has had for the past three years. Do we accept the tough trade terms the EU wants to inflict on us? Do we ask for an extension? Or do we crash out?

MPs campaigning for a confirmatory referendum will not give up hope. If Mr Johnson succeeds tomorrow, they will try to pass an amendment demanding one in the time left before the UK’s departure on October 31.

But the numbers probably aren’t there because MPs and the British public believe that passage of the Johnson deal will mark the crossing of a Rubicon. They want the UK to move on to other things.

Of all the illusions about Brexit, this is probably the greatest of all.

 

Gunpowder, Treason and Plot

Filed under: Brexit, Europe, Johnson, Northern Ireland, Scottish Independence, UK Parliament — derryvickers @ 11:22 am

Tim Farron – Belfast Telegraph

“Those factors added together mean that the border in the Irish Sea would be absolutely permanent – that, in my opinion, is a racing certainty.”

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/farron-fears-latest-accord-will-rip-the-uk-apart-and-lead-to-a-united-ireland-38606378.html.

Johnson chose the wrong  date for leaving the EU:  He should have chosen the 5th of November not the 31st October

October 14, 2019

Johnson Double Talk:

Filed under: Brexit, Europe, Immigration, Johnson — derryvickers @ 9:47 pm

The Queen’s Speech

My Government remains committed to ensuring that

resident European citizens, who have built their lives in, and contributed so much to,

the United Kingdom, have the right to remain. The bill will include measures that

reinforce this commitment.

 

But the caveat:

 

Confirming our commitment to the EU Settlement Scheme and giving EU

citizens and their family members who apply a right of appeal against

decisions under the Scheme.’

October 6, 2019

WB Yeats

Filed under: Ireland, Yeats — derryvickers @ 9:10 pm

If you are passionate about Yeats like me:

Then watch Bob Geldof while he is still on BBC4 Iplayer

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b076qphj/bob-geldof-on-wb-yeats-a-fanatic-heart

Broadcast last Wednesday 2 October 2019.  Only a few days left.

But he will be back again in around 6 months.

BTW have you seen the paintings by Yeats’s brother Jack?

And a great review by the Spectator at
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/bbc4s-bob-geldof-on-wb-yeats-was-one-of-the-best-literary-documentaries-ive-seen/

October 3, 2019

Theresa May less than convinced by Johnson

Filed under: Brexit, Johnson, Theresa May, UK Parliament — derryvickers @ 9:19 pm
On hearing Johnson in full Flight

The Waugh Zone:  On hearing Johnson in full flight

 

 

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