Mike Vickers' Blog

April 7, 2013

Euro in crisis, UK in retreat, EU foreign policy in decline

Filed under: economics, Europe — derryvickers @ 8:11 pm

A talk in the Edinburgh University Transatlantic Seminar series by Stefan Lehne – Carnegie Europe

Some notes

  1. EU History
    1. Peace initiative now lost
    2. Federal Europe – confusion
    3. Visionaries: Kohl ,Mitterrand, Delors away
    4. Slowdown of economy
    5. Ambivalence about globalisation
    6. Mainstream parties lose ground
    7. Anti-European popularist right gain
    8. Fiasco of 2005 Constitution Treaty
    9. Lisbon from the wreckage
    10. Fewer Commission Initiatives
    11. Decline in EU budget
  2. Euro
    1. Euro crisis
    2. Fear as a powerful factor to integration
    3. North South division
    4. Reform challenge in South – Solidarity in the North
    5. Bailout funds
    6. Pension worries
    7. Germany – strong consensus in Berlin
    8. Leading to need for  Banking Union
    9. Reinforced fiscal and economic integration
  3. Can it be done?
    1. Increased tensions, technocratic imperative
    2. Financial markets want more centralisation
    3. People nostalgic
    4. There was a drive to Treaty change – now no more – only Cameron for
    5. Great leap forward required  but more muddling through till Crisis passes
    6. Banking Union but which banks to close
  4. Foreign Policy
    1. Tragedy of CFSP (Common Foreign and Security Policy)
    2. Budget only 500 million euros
    3. Lack of resources and cohesion
    4. Member states own national foreign policies
    5. CFSP and Commission too far apart
    6. Suffering as Euro crisis distracts attention
    7. But could be slow progress
  5. Shallow Eurozone
    1. 28 states
    2. Variable geometry: Schengen, Defence Justice
    3. Foreign Policy – remains Intergovernmental based on Lisbon
    4. Upgraded EFAS
  6. Deep Eurozone
    1. Core and the Periphery – Eurozone and the Rest
    2. Outer circle marginalised
    3. Foreign Policy into centre
    4. Federal structures
    5. Old Dilemma was – widening – deepening
    6. New Dilemma now – Deeping – shrinking
  7. British Exit and Foreign Policy
    1. Cameron out or marginalised
    2. Dramatic loss of substantial action – foreign policy, armed forces, global advice
    3. Another drafting language
    4. Loss of substance
    5. Shift to French economy
    6. Only – the UK would lose more.
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